The 3G market to small? Let us do the math...

The latest article about 3G says that Sweden is to small for the 3G technology. To few subscribers and to big area to cover. Let us do the math. According to the Swedish Statistic Agency (SCB) the mobile penetration in Sweden is more than 100%. That means that many people posses two or more mobile subscriptions. The market potential in Sweden is therefore 9 millions, as much as its population. Deduct the children and those people to old or to sick to handle a mobile and you will probably reach the 7-8 millions. These figures are the total potential 3G market. From this one have to deduct those who will not be able to have 3G for the fact of poor coverage. That reduces the market slightly. Now to the interesting part. The latest 3G figures are as follow (sept 2005): - Tre: 310 000 - Vodafone (Telenor) 101 000 - Tele2 Comviq 41 000 - Telia 30 000 This gives us a total of 482 000 3G subscribers of a total of, lets say 8 million potential subscribers and therefore a market share of 6%. Encouraging numbers, especially for those operators who have a substantial 2G customer base and who can make their customers switch to 3G. So if we look at the potential 3G market it is satisfactory but there are big question if the market is big enough for four operators? Looking at the above numbers you might think that Tre is in the best position to gain a substantial market share, but we do not think that this is the case. Vodafone has so far made small efforts to promote their 3G but neither Tele2 or Telia are so far interested in getting into the marketing battle as long as they are making good money on 2G. When those big players get into the game, Tre is in a poor position. Tre´s goal to reach 1 million customers within a few years is questionable. They have to do this by stealing customers from the other operators. The question is, how long will the other operators tolerate this and stay passive? Actually, Tele2 Comviq has quietly built up their 3G services but not yet marketed them. Tre´s gameplan has to be sharp, extremely sharp. With the exception of the initial market campaign, this has not been the case so far, and we can not see how this will change since their competitors are faster, bigger and more effective. Tre has recruited a new head of marketing manager that will take office in August. We will probably not see any major changes in their market plan until the end of this year and beginning of next. But they could upset the market with a few strategical changes but this requires a dynamic leadership. As it looks right now the 2007 will probably become the year of 3G. Most likely the established operators will clash head on while transforming their 2G customer base to 3G. It will be interesting to see how Tre will manage to get 1 million customers. We think that they will have about 460 000 at the end of this year but then it will become a real uphill battle since the other operators will start defending their customer base and even attracting their old customers back from Tre.

Are Blogs worth it?

We received the above question by a customer and our answer was NO! Funny we should say that due to the fact that this is a blog. When you think about it, what is a blog? Is not just a modern diary? The fact that Internet has made it possible to publish ones word is not revolutionsing, homepages have been around for a while, but the fact that technology has made it so easy has put it on the map. Many companies wonder if they should monitor blogs or not. Well, we think that only a handful of blogs are interesting enough to monitor. These are the blog of the opinion leaders eg. Bill Gates, the US President etc. Other peoples blogs are mainly there for fun. To identify these opinion leaders might not be a very easy task depending on what market you want to monitor. A company that wants to monitor blogs should ask itself if it is worth the money. Consider the figures below. According to a Gallup poll, 2006, it found that just 9% of Interent users read blogs frequently, 11% do so occasionally, 13% rarely bother and 66% never do. Reading blogs ranked last in a list of 13 common Internet activities, below things like, e-mailing, checking news and shopping.

Mobile Operator + Internet Provider = True

It has started! We see the first signs of what we predicted a year ago. The mobile phone net is starting to bundle together with the Internet. Today I walked passed a Vodafone store and there it was. You could sign up for a mobile phone subscription and a Internet/broadband subscription. All you need is one signature on one paper ones mobile and Internet problems are solved. This development is very interesting due to the fact than in a near future when we have Internet everywhere there will be a seamless connection between the mobile and the land line Internet. On the Swedish market the best positioned companies will be those who possess both a Internet provider and a mobile phone structure. This explains Telenors latest buys on the Swedish market. They now own both a mobile operator and two Internet providers. The winner of Telenor, TeliaSonera and Tele2 is the one that will seamlessly connect mobile and the land lines. There should be a clear and natural flow. There are several business models to consider, but the ones that will be most successful are those that are customer centred, the ones that bring value and we are not talking about the price but about value centred services. Which one do you think will be the winner?

Commercial in Mobile Phones

Every now and then the debate about commercial in mobile phones heats up. Let us first define mobile commercial: A promotion sent to mobile phones by SMS or MMS. When looking at the market potential one could get the sense that the market is huge and therefore lucrative for all involved parties. This partly true but the debate is often put through the eyes of the producers. Like any other technology companies have to put their users first. How do users perceive commercials in mobile phones? Could the commercial make more damage than good? Well, our answer is simple. Today the medium is not ready for mobile commercial. The user experience is poor but also the business models surounding it. Using SMS or MMS could hurt your brand more than it does good. The mobile commercial has a futre only when two areas are fullfilled. One the mobile phone has to be like a computer with fast 3G or WiFi connection and second the user has to see your commercial as information. That is the key. How you do this and what business models you use are questions that all companies will be forced to think of sooner or later. For more information on the subject see our research in our webshop/report shop.

WiFi i Stockholm

"Jonas Melander, vd på Clue, utmanar TeliaSoneras trådlösa internet med sitt nybyggda nät i Stockholms innerstad med mycket låga priser." Ovantsående artikel fanns att läsa på IDGs hemsida. Jonas Melander vill erbjuda svenskar ett billigt WiFi alternativ. Ett mycket intressant experiment som innebär att man erbjuder WiFi som en tilläggstjänst till sitt nuvarande bredband. Denna strategi är helt korrekt eftersom flera företag konkurrerar om människors begränsade tillgångar. Det är oundvikligt och inom en snar framtid betalar vi en fast summa för all vår kommunikation som kommer levereras av ett fåtal företag. Storskalfördelarna för företag och konsumenter är så pass stora att utvecklingen kommer att påskyndas rejält. Vi tror att Herr Melanders initiativ har en ljus framtid men villkoret är att täckningen måste bli så omfattade som tex WiMax

The evolution of the mobile phone continues

Samsung has during the 3GSM exibition in Barcelona introduced fifteen new mobile phones. The intresting aspect is the fast changing pace of witch the moblie phone market works. A few years ago the mobile phone was something high-tech, today it is becoming more and more commonplace and we will soon see no name brands on the market on low budget models. Therefore established mobile phone companies has to play on the emotional factors that their customers possess towards their mobile phones. When customers today choose a mobile phone they do it after their emotional preferences. The mobile phone is something personal, something that expresses the personality. This is part of the truth why the market share of the established mobile phone companies change from year to year. Design is the highest competing factor in peoples choice followed by technological features.

Internet everywhere

The future is here! Google installs free WiFi access in cities in the USA. Intel´s push towards WiMax will revolutionize the global Internet market. A mobile Internet is just a natural path towards the future. The Internet is our most significant invetion this half of the century. Together with the computer it has been the reason for our high productivity gain and the changing of the market rules. To reach the space age, where we travel to distance galaxes like in Star Trek, we need a global wireless Internet. Today we see that this vision has started with 3G. Internet everywhere will change consumer habits and the way business is conducted. The question is, which company has realised this and taken the first steps? It will not be the controlling of the technical platform that will drive success but the understanding on how peoples behaviour will change and how to capitalize on it. Google is well ahead of the game, so is Skype but many others have not even thought about it.